New CPOST Survey Shows Dangers Ahead and a Way Forward
by Robert A. Pape
Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and Director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST)
Published: October 1, 2026
America today has a pressing problem: widespread tolerance of political violence. Surprisingly high proportions of the American public, on both the right and the left, are willing to say they support acts of political violence if those acts align with causes they support. The toxic brew of a deeply unpopular war, fears of impending economic catastrophe, and distrust of the American political system is making 2026 midterms perhaps the most dangerous election in our lifetime.
CPOST’s August 2026 national survey -- just two months out from the 2026 midterms -- shows the highest public support for political violence among Americans that our surveys have ever recorded – a peak twice as high as September 2024.
The results equate to astoundingly high numbers estimated in the 10s of millions agreeing that the “use of force is justified” to remove President Donald trump from office and 10s of millions agreeing that “the use of the military” is justified to suppress protesters against the Trump agenda. The economic fallout of the Iran war, partisan entrenchment, and fears about the state of American democracy are fueling this rise.
This report is based on the results from our August 2026 Understanding Support for Political Violence survey. The survey was conducted for CPOST by NORC at the University of Chicago, fielding between August 27 and August 31, 2026, to a random probability sample of 2,215 American adults with a margin of error of +/- 2.92 percentage points.
CPOST has tracked public support for political violence in America for over five years. Diagnosing the scope and drivers of support for political violence is critical to finding solutions that can mitigate the risks. If these forces pushing toward violence are not addressed, America could see more political assassinations and violent confrontations between police and citizens, supported by millions, all wrapped up in what may be the highest-stake midterms in American history.
There is, however, good news. Over 70% of Americans abhor political violence. This vast majority represents America’s largest untapped resources to push back against the growing normalization of political violence in America. Democracy – and democratic protest – works when peaceful norms guide politics. And it is the 70% who hold the key to navigating the challenging times that may be ahead with the Midterms – all the way from voting to counting to certification of the ballots and results.
The remainder of the report presents the August 2026 survey results in detail.
CPOST has tracked support for political violence in America for over five years. While there is a gap between support and action, support acts as kindling, creating a situation where individuals inclined towards violence may conclude that violence action is both necessary and appropriate. Since President Trump assumed the office, support for violent action to remove him has steadily increased, with a large increase occurring since the Iran War began in February.
CPOST’s August survey results make it clear that support for political violence remains dangerously high. 25% of Americans overall agree the use of force is justified to remove Trump from office, 50% (from 16%) since September 2025. Nearly half (44%) of Democrats agree with this statement, as do 20% of Independents and 7% of Republicans.
The August 2026 survey results confirm a pattern of gradually building support for political violence. In the year prior to the 2024 presidential election, support for political violence to restore Trump to the White House or prevent him from becoming president was on the decline, bottoming out in November 2024 just after Trump secured his second term at the ballot box.
Since May 2025, our tracking surveys show a significant increase in support for political violence, a reversal of the pre-election trend that reached a new peak in August 2026. Some of the jump from November 2024 to May 2025 reflects adjustments to our tracking items. With Trump resuming the presidency in January 2025, we adjusted our measure of support for political violence on the left to agreement with the statement “The use of force is justified to remove Donald Trump from the presidency.” We introduced a new measure for support for political violence on the right, agreement with “Donald Trump is justified using the U.S. military to stop protests against the Trump agenda.” The increase in support for both pro- and anti-Trump political violence since May 2025 is not an artifact of the survey design but reflects real changes in public sentiment as all surveys starting May 2025 use the new items.
Our surveys show support for removing the president by force (anti-Trump political violence) and using the military against anti-Trump protesters (anti-Trump political violence) have increased steadily over the past twelve months: from a combined 31% in September 2025, to 41% in September 2026. The upward trend extends back to May 2025 with one exception. The sharp dip in support for removing Trump from office by force evident in September 2025 survey is likely a response to the Charlie Kirk assassination, which took place two weeks prior to the September 2025 survey’s fielding.
The bottom-line is clear: 41% of Americans expressing support for political violence – at an estimated 90 million equating to more than a third of all Americans – is a warning light blinking red as we approach the 2026 midterm elections.
The Iran war is deeply unpopular. Very few Americans – less than 25% in our survey – expressed support for the U.S. war in Iran, including just under half of Republicans.
A majority of Americans are feeling the impact of the Iran war in their daily lives. 67% blame the Iran war for higher gas prices (including most Republicans, 70%). 52% expect the war to result in an economic recession in the coming months, (including 35% of Republicans).
Few (32%) believe the U.S. will win the war, and a plurality (37%) agree the U.S. should end the war immediately, even if doing so leaves Iran in charge of the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly half of Americans (46%) oppose escalating the conflict to include using U.S. ground forces.
Tellingly, even in a hyperpartisan political environment, only a tiny percentage of Americans (11%) agree opposition to the war is anti-American – 5% fewer than agree Trump is justified in using the U.S. military against anti-Trump protesters.
The domestic consequences of the Iran war are exacerbating an already volatile political environment. This environment is marked by broad public distrust in American institutions, like government and elections. More worryingly, Americans appear deeply fearful of their political opponents.
This is not simply polarization. When mutual distrust and polarization combine with support for political violence against political opponents, the result is fractured legitimacy.
Our August 2026 found less than half of Americans (42%) of Americans are confident that votes in the 2026 midterms will be accurately counted (Democrats 53%, Independents 29%, Republicans 38%).
54% of Americans are pessimistic about the impact of elections on solving America’s problems (54% of Democrats, 45% of Independents, 61% of Republicans) survey shows 41% of Americans are worried that they will become second class citizens, including nearly half of Democrats (49%), 36% Republicans, and 35% of Independents.
29% of Americans are concerned about threats to their personal safety due to their political views, including 33% of Democrats, 30% of Republicans, and 20% of Independents.
And perhaps most striking: 70% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans (roughly 40% of Americans) agree that the government does not protect them when the other party is power. Equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans (39%, approximately 31% of the population) only feel safe when their party is in power.
The August 2026 survey results suggest that the Iran War now ranks among more long-term partisan grievances as a significant factor in support for political violence on the left and the right.
Over the past several years, our surveys have shown that Americans who agree America is systematically racist against non-White people or that Democrats are trying to replace the electorate with more pliant voters from the Third world are consistently more likely to support political violence than those who disagree with these views -- more than 5x as likely in our current August survey.
What is surprising is that attitudes toward the war in Iran produce similar results. Those who oppose the war are more than 3x more likely than supporters to agree force is justified to remove Trump from the presidency by force. Similarly, supporters of the war are are more than 5x times as likely as opponents to support the use of military force against Americans protesting the Trump agenda. Support for using military against protesters is more than 5x times higher among Americans who believe opposing the Iran war is anti-American.
Economic concerns, including those tied to the war in Iran, as well as political fears, are also associated with higher support for political violence, but at lower levels -- between 1.5 and 1.9x.
The Iran War and fractured legitimacy are both exacerbating the risk of political violence – in the run-up to the midterms, but perhaps even more so between November and January, the period when votes are counted, results confirmed, and a potentially significant shift in political power away from President Trump and the Republican party takes shape.
Even as the political kindling is primed, there are grounds for optimism – but only if political leaders take action. Even now, in a moment where support for political violence is spiking, Americans have consistently expressed strong support for action against political violence by political leaders.
In our latest survey, 74% of the public want members of Congress should make a bipartisan statement condemning any political violence. Since we first introduced this item into our surveys in January 2023, support for the joint statement against political violence has been strong, consistently between 70 and 80% of the population or an estimated 180 to 200 million Americans. It is telling that over 80% of Americans in our August survey who were supportive political violence also want such bipartisan action – pointing to a clear path forward.
To prevent political violence, it is vital that our political leaders work to reduce this support as much as possible. President Biden consistently called political violence unacceptable while in office, making repeated statements to remind the public that political violence is always wrong, regardless of the cause supported. His efforts had a clear impact on support for political violence during the latter year of his second term, reducing at least one measure of support for political violence by half between June 2023 and Nov 2024.
We also observed our political leadership doing just this in the aftermath of the 2024 election, when President Biden and Vice-President Harris, despite the bitter election loss, worked with the incoming Trump administration to facilitate a peaceful transition of power.