2024
Robert Pape in Foreign Affairs: The American Style of Political Violence
Mon., Sep. 23, 2024
CPOST Director Robert Pape explains why the upcoming election is not only the most consequential in our lifetimes, but also the most dangerous, in his latest article published in Foreign Affairs.
"But all this commentary overlooks the predominant structural dynamic driving the new era of violence....The principal danger to the United States is not any out-of-control technology or fringe militia group. It is not economic grievances run amok. It is not even Trump, who is as much a symptom of what ails the United States as he is a cause. Instead, the greatest source of danger comes from a cultural clash over the nature of the United States’ identity—one with profound implications for who gets to be a citizen. Its key actors are not isolated radicals but large numbers of ordinary Americans."
Read the article here.
CPOST Survey Data Cited in WSJ
Fri., Sep. 20, 2024
CPOST's June 2024 survey on support for political violence in America cited in the Wall Street Journal on Friday, September 20, 2024.
From the article: "As politically motivated attacks have proliferated, Americans have become more inured—and more open—to violence as a means to a political end, said Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago. Pape conducted a nationwide poll on the topic this June in which 10% of those surveyed said the use of force would be justified to prevent Trump from returning to the White House, while 7% said violence would be acceptable to restore him to power. “These two radical minorities can spiral,” Pape said. “They can feed off of each other, and the numbers can grow.”
Read the entire article here.
What Needs to be Done About Political Violence Today: Boston Globe
Mon., Jul. 15, 2024
Writing in the Boston Globe after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, CPOST Director Robert Pape presents CPOST's latest polling data showing continued support for political violence among a substantial fraction of Americans: "The striking finding from our June 24 survey is that 10 percent of American adults — the equivalent of 26 million people — agree that 'the use of force is justified to prevent Donald Trump from being president.'" Pape argues that "To break the dynamic, it is crucial for political leaders across parties to condemn political violence repeatedly and vividly even if it comes from people who support their political goals."
Read the full op-ed here.
CPOST Survey Data Cited in New York Times
Sun., Jul. 14, 2024
In the wake of the assassination attempt on presidential candidate Donald Trump, Alan Feuer's latest article in the New York Times cites COPST's June 2024 survey data showing 10% of Americans agree that "The use of force is justified to prevent Donald Trump from becoming president." According to CPOST Director Robert Pape, the attack against Trump “is a consequence of such significant support for political violence in our country.”
Read the full article here.
CPOST Director on Chicago’s transformation from isolationist to globally engaged: Chicago Tribune
Sun., Mar. 03, 2024
In a recent Chicago Tribune op-ed by Storer H. Rowley, Prof. Robert Pape says, “In a modern age of empathy and social media, it is so common for people to identify with the plight of people overseas...I think what you are seeing basically is support for positions that have a lot to do with empathizing with other people."
Read full Op-ed here.
Indictments Fueled Extremists’ Support for Trump, CPOST Survey Finds: The Guardian
Fri., Jan. 26, 2024
New CPOST survey results shows increased violent support for Trump aligns with the indictments, as did the erosion of support for democratic norms. In addition, the survey found court cases using the 14th amendment to try to keep Trump off the ballot could further erode confidence in the political system, regardless of how the supreme court rules on the issue.
In an article published in The Guardian on January 26, CPOST Director Robert Pape says support for democratic norms has gone from “bad to worse”, and the more a person believes the system is corrupt or rigged, the more likely they are to support using violence instead of the political system.
Read the article here.
CPOST Director Says America a ‘Tinderbox’ in 2024: WTTW-Chicago PBS
Tue., Jan. 09, 2024
As the third anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack passed, WTTW News spoke with CPOST Director Robert Pape, to get his thoughts on the threat of domestic political violence.
Listen to the interview here.
Expert Statements to Jan 6 Committee Now Available: Just Security
Sat., Jan. 06, 2024
During the course of its 18-month investigation, the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol solicited expert statements to help it better understand “the facts, circumstances, and causes” of the attack. Expert statements to the Committee based on extensive CPOST research are now available online. See item 15 of the Just Security publication here.
CPOST Director on the Unseen Faces of Jan. 6 and Why Trump Poses a “Uniquely Dangerous Threat”: Amanpour and Company
Fri., Jan. 05, 2024
Almost three years after insurgents stormed the U.S. Capitol, the shadow of January 6 continues to hang over the fate of American democracy. CPOST Director Robert Pape joins Walter Isaacson to discuss how political violence moved from the margins to the mainstream.
Watch the interview here.
2023
CPOST Director on Israel’s Endgame: American Trends Podcast
Tue., Nov. 21, 2023
CPOST Director Robert Pape goes on the American Trends Podcast to discuss, "Does Israel Have an End Game in Mind in Its Response to Hamas’ Brutal Attack?" Listen here.
CPOST Director on Way Forward in War Between Israel and Gaza: CNN
Wed., Nov. 01, 2023
In a CNN op-ed, CPOST Director Robert Pape argues "There's a smarter way to defeat Hamas." Pape explains why "Israel’s strategy for defeating Hamas — destroying its military and political capabilities to the point where the terrorist group can never again launch major attacks against Israeli civilians — is unlikely to work." "To defeat terrorist groups like Hamas," Pape writes, "it is important to separate the terrorists from the local population from which they emerge. Otherwise, the current generation of terrorists can be killed, only to be replaced by a new, larger generation of terrorists in the future."
Read the op-ed here.
Robert Pape Talks with Reset’s Shasha-Ann Simmons About CPOST’s Research with the ADL on Antisemitism and Political Violence
Fri., Oct. 20, 2023
CPOST Director Robert Pape joined Anti-Defamation League's Midwest Regional Director David Goldenberg on Reset with Sasha-Ann Simons radioshow on WBEZ to talk through the results of CPOST/ADL's research on the link between antisemitism and support for political violence and how the report's findings connect to antisemitism we’ve seen since the start of the Israel-Hamas war and what might happen in 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle.
Listen to the broadcast (21 minutes) here.
10 Million Americans both High in Antisemitism and Support for Political Violence: New CPOST/ADL Report
Thu., Oct. 19, 2023
New report reveals concrete evidence that the toxic threats of rising antisemitism and support for political violence are not only rising in our country, but are also linked in disturbing ways. The report, a collaboration between CPOST and the ADL, presents findings from a nationally representative survey of nearly 8,000 adults that establish a clear relationship between antisemitism, political violence and antidemocratic conspiracy theories on both ends of the political spectrum.
CPOST Director Gives Talk on Middle East Crisis at Oakton College
Wed., Oct. 18, 2023
CPOST Director Robert Pape gave a public talk at Oakton College on The Hamas Surprise Attack, Israel’s Response, and
Risks of Escalation on October 18, 2023. With Israel within hours of launching a major ground offensive to completely destroy Hamas militarily and politically, Pape argues it is important to show the US and world why this will lead to massive escalation beyond Gaza, particularly in the West Bank and in Israeli cities.
According to Pape, this escalation is important, because this escalation inside Israel will likely be the trigger for wider escalation with Hezbollah and the region. His presentation starts by clarifying that terrorist groups like Hamas always seek to win through exactly this strategy -- gruesome civilian attacks that provoke the democracy to escalate with ground forces that massively increase recruitment for the terrorist group. The analysis highlights the risk of escalation within Gaza and the West Bank, and implications for regional escalation as well.
2019
CPOST on Freakonomics
Fri., Jun. 14, 2019 | CPOST
Catch CPOST when we appear on Freakonomics Radio Live!, Thursday, Sept. 26 at the Harris Theater! WBEZ’s Podcast Passport series presents this live taping, hosted by radio host Stephen J. Dubner and co-host and economics professor at the University of Chicago, Steven D. Levitt. Don’t miss us as exclusive guests on this episode as we intrigue a live audience with fascinating information about international security and intelligence. We hope to see you there!
Robert Gulotty’s New Book
Fri., Jun. 14, 2019 | CPOST
Looking for a new read in 2020? CPOST Assistant Director and faculty member, Robert Gulotty, is finishing up his book, Narrowing the Channel The Politics of Regulatory Protection in International Trade. Look for it online soon!
Robert Pape’s visit to Taiwan
Mon., Jun. 10, 2019 | CPOST
During his recent visit to Taiwan, CPOST Director Robert Pape met with Deputy Foreign Minister Szu-chien Hsu and led a U.S. delegation to learn more about the effects of the U.S. trade war with China. With the recent announcement that the U.S. would raise massive taxes on Chinese goods, Dr. Pape learned from his visit to Taiwan, that it will be the U.S. and China that suffer in the long-term. Companies there are already looking to withdraw their manufacturers out of China, to other countries in the region. A short-term effect includes China not exporting as much, buyers having to pay more, and ultimately taxes falling onto U.S. consumers, like you and me. After returning from his trip, he came away knowing that the real long-term concern is geopolitical implications that could escalate with China moving forward.
Christchurch Call in New Zealand
Thu., May. 16, 2019 | CPOST
Recent terrorist attacks around the world, such as Christchurch, Sri Lanka and others, demonstrate the rise of the use of social media as a catalyst for spreading terrorism. CPOST Director, Dr. Pape, was invited by New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, to attend the Christchurch Call on May 14 in Paris – a commitment by Governments and tech companies to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online.
Keven Ruby Presents in Toronto
Wed., May. 01, 2019 | CPOST
In April, CPOST's Research Director, Keven Ruby, presented on the threat of ISIS propaganda and social media in terrorist recruitment in the West at the Leadership in Counter Terrorism Alumni Association (LinCT-AA) in Toronto, Canada. LinCT-AA is a major conference bringing together senior law enforcement, military, and intelligence leaders in the counter-terrorism field from the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand to discuss counter-terrorism strategy and improve inter-agency communications and cooperation.
Ben Lessing Named 2019 Carnegie Fellow
Wed., Apr. 24, 2019 | CPOST
Assistant Professor and CPOST Associate Director Benjamin Lessing is among the 32 fellows in this year’s class, announced April 23 by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. He was chosen from nearly 300 nominations for the honor, one of the most prestigious fellowships of its type. Lessing and prof. Michael Greenstone are the first UChicago scholars to win the award, which was first established in 2015.
CPOST’s Deputy Data Manager Presents at NATO
Mon., Apr. 22, 2019 | CPOST
CPOST's Deputy Data Manager Jakob Urda, 4th year graduating from the college, represented CPOST at the NATO Defense Against Terrorism Center of Excellence in Ankara, Turkey this past April. Urda, a Senior, CPOST researcher and Political Science Major, stood in for Director Pape, giving a keynote address on why suicide terrorism happens and the strategic logic behind it. He gave a second lecture about key insights on recruitment tactics. Urda was able to participate in working groups where attendees shared their experiences and ideas for suicide terrorism solutions. “This experience was a real capstone for my time here. I am grateful to have represented CPOST and contribute to its mission on a global stage.” After graduation, Urda will participate in the Hertog War Studies Program at the Institute for the Study of War, followed by a full-time employment position at Gartner in August.
2019
The Changing Terrorist Threat to the US
Mon., Feb. 25, 2019
Watch our Livestream here: The Changing Terrorist Threat to the US begins at 10:00 AM on Tuesday, May 16 at Ida Noyes Hall on the UChicago campus. Keynotes by DHS Secretary General John Kelly and former CIA and NSA Director General Michael Hayden. Reserve your spot online now!
2019
Rochelle Terman Finalist for Best Dissertation
Mon., Feb. 04, 2019 | CPOST
CPOST's Assistant Director, Rochelle Terman, was a Finalist for the Lynne Rienner Publishers Award for Best Dissertation, International Studies Association Human Rights Section, 2019. This on the heels of winning the 2017 Merze Tate (formerly Helen Dwight Reid) Award for the best dissertation in international relations, law, and politics from the American Political Science Association. Congrats, Rochelle, on an impressive run of awards!
2018
Congressional Testimony: Defeat of ISIS an American Victory
Wed., Jan. 17, 2018
CPOST's Director Dr. Robert Pape testified before Congress on the role that American strategy played in the defeat of ISIS and the challenge of securing lasting peace and security now that the group's territorial sanctuary in Iraq and Syria has been liberated.