2020 Political Violence Review

On January 27, The University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats released its first systematic analysis of militant violence around the world, analyzing trends in suicide and non-suicide attack patterns, Arabic propaganda, and the shock of Covid-19 with reliable data from January 1 to December 31, 2020.

The report covers four main regions of the world: the Middle East, Northern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South-Central Asia (incl. Afghanistan)

Key findings

  1. Globally, 2020 was a down year for terrorism/militant violence (5-10%)
    • Dropping sharply in first 6 months
    • Rising in last 6 months
  2. Middle East saw suicide attacks down sharply (72%)
  3. Northern Africa was flat
  4. Sub-Saharan Africa bucked the trend, with violence increasing (11%)
    • Due to Islamic State affiliates competing and fighting with Al-Qaeda groups for control
  5. Afghanistan down 45%, but rising sharply in last 6 months
    • Rise threatening to Afghan Government in near term

For a 5 min summary, see professor Robert Pape's interview on WGN.

Click here for a 40 min video summary.

Click here for our full report.